DUNEDIN., Fla. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the spring training game against Tampa Bay with right knee discomfort. As his 136 OPS+ and 26 homers attest, he can still rake even at age 40, but with 443 career dingers, hes two seasons away from reaching 500 (42% odds, via ZiPS). So basically what Im saying is that if Adam Wainwright has a once-every-seventy-five-years season, he should probably make it into Cooperstown. Sorry we could not verify that email address. Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright may have ended a solid career. FASTBALLS JET ACROSS the baseball atmosphere in this era, booming into catchers' mitts at 100 mph or faster, and amid that sound of speed, there is Adam Wainwright's curveball. Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. Reports on Wednesday, October 26th, say that Wainwright will return to the Cardinals for his 19th MLB season with the club, as he continues to chase his 200th career win. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Even if he retired now, Verlander has likely done enough to ensure a plaque in Cooperstown. Clayton Kershaw is this generations Sandy Koufax; he could retire right now and hed make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Arizona Diamondbacks. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. Always ranking QBs. The Hall of Fame case for St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case). Jos Ramirez, third base (32.8 career | 31.5 Peak | 32.1 JAWS, +4.0 JAWS). When Wainwright has pitched, hes been traditionally one of the better pitchers in the league, having won 20 games twice, 19 games on two other occasions, and led the league twice. He has led the league in strikeouts three times, including a 300-strikeout season in 2018. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Sale went two years and a day between major league outings due to elbow inflammation, a flexor tendon strain, and Tommy John surgery, but hes made a solid return so far, with a 2.53 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate through four starts. Thats an average of 174 innings per year. Will this happen? But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. Among the sixty-five (again, the number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers) greatest starting pitchers in history, five are either currently active or retired but not yet Hall eligibleJustin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and CC Sabathia. Homecoming Kings: After raucous red-coated pomp, Wainwright and O'Neill Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame. He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. Upon losing in the Wild Card round, the franchise's attention shifted to the offseason and what will happen to some of their aging players. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. All Wins Above Replacement and Wins Above Average data comes . He has a $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, and to make the Hall of Fame, he may need another Cy Young award and a dominant performance in a World Series championship. Adam Wainwright was born on the 30th of August, 1981. Your email address will not be published. Central Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball's Hall of Fame. Your login session has expired. Kimbrel has an option for next year, which I think is likely to be exercised, so he wont be a free agent until 2023. King Felix is still just 31 years old, despite close to 2,500 innings on his right arm. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. Winnowing the 180/2,000/3.40/350/2,300 field down to just wild card-era pitchers makes for an even more exclusive group: Wainwright, Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Clemens plus Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay and Pedro Martinez. Hes endured shoulder miseries and a strained oblique. Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind. 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. Wainwright was a three time All Star and two time Gold Glove winner, finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young vote four times. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe and Mastodon @jay_jaffe. Prices highlights include a 2012 Cy Young award, two ERA titles, and five 200-strikeout seasons. With 273 homers, Goldschmidt could reach 300 by the end of next season, though with 1,539 hits, the 2,000 milestone and real clarity on his fate is probably three seasons away. A frequently cited statistic for determining Hall worthiness is the average production of a Hall of Famer at that position, though my preferred approach is to consider a players worthiness not according to the average at a position among a subset of players who are sometimes transcendent and sometimes unworthy, but rather to ask, Is this guy the (fill in ordinal number of Hall of Famers at position) best (fill in position) ever? By Hybrid JAWS, Yadier Molina is the 13th greatest catcher of all-time (two of the ones ahead of him, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, are not yet Hall-eligible), and there are sixteen catchers in the Hall of Fame. His draft stock suggests he has the ability to be a top-tier pitcher, but as of now, hes not on a Cooperstown track. Sep 14, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. According to tracking done by Baseball Reference he faced mostly Double A hitters. Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. A similarly impressive 2022 and perhaps 2023, though upon signing a one-year extension with the Cardinals last week, Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season added to his 2017-14 peak would nudge him ever closer to a Cooperstown-worthy body of work and at the least underline the kind of company hes already keeping. The Hall of Fame should immortalize the greatest starting pitchers of each era. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Flipboard (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window). What injury? Rile people up.. Drew. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. Yadier Molina, though certainly less overwhelming of a candidate than Pujols, is probably going to make it inparticularly with the modern embrace of pitch framing, Molinas defensive reputation has only improved, and his high longevity and peak scores by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (which, unlike Baseball Reference, incorporates framing), are well within the normal catcher standards for Cooperstown, even if the rank-and-file voter bestows his candidacy with fewer goat emojis and general fawning than St. Louis does. And right now, he simply isnt there. Sure there are. He trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, a grand slam in the first inning and a solo shot in the fourth. JAWS and peak (WAR7) gains are the major drivers of this, but positional standards, traditional milestones, and ordinal rankings are considerations as well. Look at that. Heres hoping this isnt the start of a Ken Griffey Jr.-like slog through the second half of his career. Godspeed, Waino. But if youd told me four years ago when his career looked absolutely left for dead that I would even half-heartedly entertain the notion, I would have doubted that even more. If he misses the first week or so, no big deal. At 41-years-old, Adam Wainwright's statistics suggest no signs of slowing down. It happens a lot. But in evaluating Wainwright by the standards of the modern starting pitchers, he has a path albeit a narrow one that requires him to sustain his late-30s rebirth for at least one and possibly two more seasons that seemed impossible when he was in the midst of an extended sunset phase late in the 2010s. Yadier Molina, catcher (58.1 career fWAR (incl. 82-53, 2.99 ERA, 1,380 strikeouts, 138 adjusted ERA. Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. Gerrit Cole (117 wins at age 31) and Chris Sale (114 wins at age 32) are the likeliest active pitchers to approach Wainwrights total. 100-70, 2.99 ERA, 1,409 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. His 195 career wins have him tied for 132nd all-time, and his career strikeouts currently have him sitting 71st all-time. When he calls it a career, Wainwright won't be a serious contender for baseball's Hall of Fame, unlike Molina. The Hall of Stats was built by Adam Darowski, Jeffrey Chupp, and Michael Berkowitz.Follow the Hall of Stats on Twitter or Facebook.The Hall of Stats is open sourced on GitHub.All data is also open and available as a free download. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright's Hall of Fame chances could be dampened by circumstances out of his control. 2000-2023 Rogers Media. 3rd stage: Well, his arm hasnt rebounded the way we were hoping for, so were just going to shut him down and see how he responds. Adam Wainwright is the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson, and arguably the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in history other than Bob Gibson. . The Cardinals looked like one of the best teams in the National League throughout the 2022 regular season, finishing with a record of 93-69, winning the NL Central Division in the process. The performance was unsurprisingly unsustainable. Adam Wainwright. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). 2/4/18 Super Bowl champs. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Its available on your preferred podcast platform. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing-and-miss stuff and faded to a 17.8 percent strikeout rate. Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing . Its a shame because he was off to a great start to his season, with 1.9 WAR and a 195 OPS+ in just 36 games. Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. In the five innings Wainwright yielded eight hits and four earned runs for a 7.20 ERA. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. Adam Wainwright answers if he thinks he's a Hall of Famer | Foul I took a look at 10 active starting pitchers with borderline Hall of Fame resumes and broke down their odds of enshrinement. Hell get some work in between now and then, and hopefully that will get him on track. Keep your fingers crossed, St. Louis fans.. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. He, of course, can retract this, but as he is now in his 40s, Im inclined to believe hes serious. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. Alas, just before the All-Star break, the 33-year-old southpaw landed on the injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm and hasnt even gotten to the point of a rehab stint yet after suffering a setback in late July. He produced the worst set of metrics in a full season in his career. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. Privacy Policy His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. As a result, Ive chosen not to include him on this article. He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. Cardinals Milestones for Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina in 2022 Is Adam Wainwright in the Hall of Fame? A two-homer, two-walk game on Wednesday added half a win to whats now his seventh-best season (4.5 WAR); with a big finish, he can approach the peak standard (42.7 WAR).
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